America 2024

“May you live in interesting times.” This expression is associated with periods of uncertainty and disorder.  We certainly are experiencing these conditions.  This essay is an examination of the United States of America in early August 2024.  With a general election about three months in the future, let’s examine the political landscape first.

Politics

In my first book, Escaping Oz: Protecting your wealth during the financial crisis, published in late 2010, I discussed public anger.

“The new cycle will foster public anger in ways that were formerly unimaginable…The danger with public anger is its potentially volatile nature.”

The reason for delving into public sentiment was to associate mood with the emergence of strong political movements.  At the book’s publication, we had the Tea Party’s emergence and less than a year later the country witnessed Occupy Wall Street.  Continuing from the book,

“Overall, there is a groundswell of discontent without party affiliation with the Tea Party receiving the most attention.  To consider them an organized political party at this point is premature…While the Tea Party itself may not become an organized political party, it may serve as the basis for a viable third party in the United States.”

The Tea Party evolved into a caucus within the GOP and a rather independent minded one at that.  The general election of 2012 is the last election where we’ve had “traditional” candidacies.  The subsequent three elections, including the upcoming 2024 version, feature examples of third party-style candidates.  These candidacies are born from public discontent. The anger’s catalyst is discussed later in the essay.

 2016 Election

The nation witnessed the emergence of three candidates who did not fit the traditional mold: Dr. Ben Carson, Senator Bernie Sanders, and the eventual 45th President of the United States (POTUS).  A year before election day, Dr. Carson polled ahead of the eventual 45th president and was the favorite among GOP hopefuls.  Dr. Carson was a political neophyte who appealed to those identifying as Tea partiers.  What does it say when the leading contender for the GOP nomination in 2015 was a conservative non-politician and the candidate polling behind him, who’d eventually become the 45th president, claimed notoriety outside the political sphere?  Both candidates represented a clear break with the past.  Moreover, the eventual winner of the GOP nomination was loathed within his own party and adored by his voters who grew tired of more established candidates.

The declared Independent, Bernie Sanders, caucused with Democrats and was/is an avowed democratic-socialist.  Whatever you might think of his policies, the energy at his rallies was palpable.  His supporters were voters angry with the establishment and existing Democratic Party leadership.  In many respects his supporters felt disenfranchised, much like supporters of the GOP nominee.

Were it not for machinations of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), he might have been their nominee in 2016.  If you doubt the Clinton takeover of the DNC and how the party pushed out Bernie Sanders, read what DNC chair Donna Brazile had to say.  The Democratic Party did not nominate its strongest candidate and subsequently lost the election.

 2020 Election

The incumbent 45th POTUS cemented himself as the leader of a new GOP.  Once again Senator Sanders was the early leader and the eventual nominee, Joe Biden, finished in 4th and 5th place in the first two primaries.  Then South Carolina Representative James Clyburn marshalled forces to support Mr. Biden, and the rest, as they say, is history.  Despite the party turning against him once again, Senator Sanders won by a wide margin in the very Democratic state of California and had the second most pledged delegates at the convention.  As in 2016, the energy in his rallies was palpable.

Two and a half years before this election (February 2018), I penned an essay, called The Next President, predicting the Democrats would have a woman on the ticket (President or VP) and the next president would govern as a democratic socialist, thus asserting a Democratic Party win.  I was correct on both counts.  Yet, once again, the Democrats did not nominate their strongest candidate.  An objective view of their nominee and eventual 46th POTUS, Mr. Biden, revealed a candidate in cognitive decline.  There were many signs, though it did not matter.  This was no longer the Democratic party of the past.  It would govern in a democratic socialist fashion.  For the sake of brevity, I won’t delve into why I concluded this governing style.

My other assertion would be the presence of multi-trillion dollar deficits for the foreseeable future.  I made these comments independent of any considerations of government spending for the control/eradication of an airborne virus.  These gargantuan deficits came to fruition as anticipated.

 2024 Election

The cognitive deterioration in the 46th POTUS became more evident throughout his presidency.  The denials by media, Washington elites, elected officials, and his supporters reinforced my suspicion that POTUS was not actually running the Executive branch.

“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.  It was their final, most essential command.  And if all other accepted the lie, if all records told the same tale, then the lie passed into history and became truth.”  George Orwell, 1984

The Democratic Party primary season was no season at all.  Any challengers were thwarted with amended primary rules and other maneuvers.  A strong challenger emerged in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.  Mind you, this is no carpetbagger.  When you look up the word Democrat in the dictionary, you see his family name.  If you’re a Democratic Party voter, you should question why your party squashed your ability to choose.

I remarked months ago that I did not see how President Biden could debate anyone given his non compos mentis status.  Then, the Democratic party accelerated the debate schedule.  Then we had the expected outcome of Debate #1 and the surprise by the Democrats of their candidate’s regrettable performance.  Then we had the assassination attempt of the presumptive GOP nominee under highly suspicious circumstances surrounding his security detail.  Finally, the 46th POTUS evidently suffered some type of medical emergency in Las Vegas, it’s blamed on COVID, and he withdrew from the 2024 race via a Twitter post on non-POTUS letterhead with a signature that looked unlike his others. In today’s communications landscape, there may be nothing unusual about using social media to make announcements, and there’s no rule suggesting the use of POTUS letterhead.  Yet, his absence from public view further served to reinforce the question of POTUS’s health status.

Once he withdrew, there was then the matter of his pledged delegates.  Since there was not a viable primary season, there were no candidates waiting in the wings, so to speak.  Logic might dictate that the Democrats would arrive at their convention and select/nominate their candidate in that atmosphere.  As of this writing, it appears Democratic voters will once again have no voice with apparent party support for Vice President Harris.

The nomination of VP Harris is, on some level, troubling for Democrats.  She had a dismal presidential campaign in 2020 and cannot attach her name to significant legislative or policy successes.  Moreover, she was tasked to address the border crisis and, charitably, this has not been a success.  On the other hand, she deserves the first consideration to replace Mr. Biden given that she is the Vice President of the United States (VPOTUS).

If you don your tin foil hat, you could imagine Democrat party leadership acquiescing to her presidential nomination if they felt she had little chance of winning.  In this scenario, the Democrats wait until 2028 when the 45th and 47th POTUS is out of office.  She’s discarded as a failed candidate, and they never deal with her as a presidential candidate again.

The “Deep State”

In 2016 I published the first of a four-part political thriller series entitled, 2020, a depiction of the U.S. presidential election of the year 2020.  Perhaps I should have titled it 2024?  This novel highlights the connection between media, business, and government, and the struggle between liberty and authority.  In the next book, Rebellium, the protagonist, Chandler Scott, is conversing with his mentor, Axel, and there is the following exchange where Axel says,

“The Deep State is all around us.  People just assume that it is a part of the great cosmic order.  I’m sure they’re editing civics courses at the grade school and high school level now, telling the next generation how much we need the Deep State.  Chairman Mao said political power originated in the barrel of a gun.  The Deep State doesn’t need a gun.  They just assume economic control…I realized years ago that we basically had a Demopublican Party and a Repumocratic Party.  There were no differences between the two. I say that hyperbolically since, of course, there are some differences.  The lack of differences strengthens the State’s power.”

There is a reason Axel drew little distinction between the Republicans and Democrats and that is because of the Deep State (DS).  It’s fair to say the DS is not merely resident in Washington, D.C.  It’s present in business, defense industry, media, and academia.  For those in the DS, there’s comfort in surrounding onself with others of like mind and comfortable remuneration.   It’s also why the DS abhors those who might upset the established order.  In my lifetime, I’ve witnessed disruptors like presidential candidate Henry Ross Perot in 1992.  It also manifested with Congressman Ron Paul, Dr. Ben Carson, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and Senator Sanders.  The DS wants no part of their presidential aspirations because they represent a threat to their existence.

In 2016, emerged the strongest anti-DS candidate who vowed to “drain the swamp.”  His populist appeal generated legitimate concern within the DS and thus we experienced two impeachments and numerous accusations of wrongdoing.  A subsequent independent investigation revealed no collusion with the enemy.

When he declared his candidacy in 2024, the accusations started once again, this time progressing to trials and convictions.  None other than former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, no fan of the 45th POTUS, asserted that the alleged illegal payoff to a former porn star case would never have been brought forward absent his run for office.  The 45th POTUS’ recent brush with death during a campaign stop only raised DS suspicion among supporters and, what will become, new converts.

The current election cycle brings us yet another anti-DS candidate in Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr.  Arguably, he represents the strongest Democrat presidential candidate in this cycle.  He’s certainly a man of significant erudition and yet, somehow, he’s unworthy to compete for his party’s nomination.

Corruption and Pitch Forks

Early in my life I lived in a country that was ruled by a military dictatorship.  The situation was as follows:

• The regime was corrupt.

• The people knew the regime was corrupt.

• The regime knew the people knew the regime was corrupt.

While a nation can function in such a precarious balance, the regime is always most concerned about the public brandishing pitch forks.  In benign forms, the pitch forks are reflected in the ascendancy of populist candidates.  Populist candidates never receive support from the DS, those directly connected to the DS, the Elite, or self-appointed intelligentsia.

The pitch forks emerge when those less fortunate individuals in society feel more oppressed.  The oppression often originates with the DS or policies by the elected and often unelected Elite. Oppression progresses higher in the socioeconomic order.  For the current presidential cycle, it started in 2020.  When schools began shutting down in the spring of that year, I remarked that a particular school district in my city (one where I volunteered as a tutor years earlier) would never shutter since 90% plus of the student body received one or two daily meals while in school.  Additionally, remote learning was not available to this student body for lack of connectivity and personal computers.  I was spectacularly incorrect!  While all students experiencing school closures and remote learning suffered, the lowest economic strata suffered the most.

And it continued.  With limited immigration control at the U.S. southern border, it was inevitable that waves of migrants would make their way to the most populated/sanctuary cities.  Understandably, infrastructure (physical and otherwise) could not support the influx.  Who is experiencing dislocation from the influx?  The most economically disadvantaged.  Throw in extra benefits for the new arrivals, and you have pitch forks being sharpened for a fight.  The current administration’s immigration policies is damaging their historical constituencies.

War

Readers are encouraged to further research this topic.  There is this troubling notion that Russia woke up one morning and decided to invade Ukraine. The war and invasion were entirely avoidable.  Remember when the Iron Curtain fell, the Soviet Union dissolved, and we were to enjoy a peace dividend?  I’m still waiting for my check.

Ask yourself these questions.  Once the Berlin Wall fell and there was no more Warsaw Pact, what purpose would NATO serve?  If there was no Warsaw Pact, why was it necessary to recruit more nations to join NATO?  Who was NATO poised to fight?  If we wanted a secure Europe, why exclude Russia from joining NATO?

The answers to those uncomfortable questions will explain the situation in Ukraine.   Consider also Russia’s history of facing land invasions on their western flank (see Napoleon and Nazis).

Lamentably, commitments made to Russia about NATO’s expansion were not kept.  There was no peace dividend.  And I ask once more, what is NATO’s role in the absence of the Warsaw Pact?

Russia understandably was uncomfortable with NATO expansion and made it well-known.  Irrespective, NATO kept adding nations to the defense pact, inching closer to Russia’s border.  Ukraine was the last straw.  It started in 2014 when the U.S. and U.K. interfered, or should I euphemistically say “influenced” the overthrow of a government with friendly ties to Moscow.  For those keeping score, this is not the first time the U.S. has “influenced” the overthrow of a government.  It continued with the overture to Ukraine that they join NATO.  By the way, these overtures started with the Bush 43 administration and continued with the current administration.

Time to ask yourself more questions.  What would the U.S. do if China had a defense pact with nations in Central America?  Let’s start with Panama and then continue the progression.  What would happen if Mexico joined this Chinese defense pact?  But wait!  We do have this example.  Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis?  And this crisis was precipitated by the U.S. placing missiles of their own in Turkey.  The world flirted with the Four Horses of the Apocalypse for a few days until the Soviet Union withdrew their missiles.

Hopefully, these brief paragraphs at least kindle thoughts about Russian motives and concerns.  Consider also there was an opportunity to end this war very early in the conflict and that was scuttled by Western nations (NATO).  Why?  There are many who believe that Russia will not stop in Ukraine and simply continue their march across the European continent.  For those believing this, I urge you to consider what it would take in terms of personnel, material, and logistics to accomplish such a feat.  It’s not as if Russia has overrun Ukraine in the current war.  What was key about the year 2022 to begin the military campaign?  Also, why would Russia conduct a land war in Europe given NATO’s existence?

We are playing a very dangerous game, poking the literal bear that happens to be the largest nuclear armed power.  I’ve heard discussions about using tactical nuclear weapons in a limited deployment.  Folks, here’s the problem with any discussion about war between two nuclear armed powers, in this case the two largest nuclear armed powers.  There is no playbook.  If one side uses nukes, what prevents the other from doing the same?  Which side pushes the “pause” button.  The conflict will absolutely become an existential threat to us and potentially humanity.  Read that last sentence again.

Moreover, why is the United States supporting this war to the tune of billions?  Did you know that prior to this war, Ukraine was considered one of the most corrupt nations on Earth?  We’ve been told this is a fight to protect democracy.  What is Ukraine’s strategic significance to the United States?  Given the myriad of problems on the domestic front, why prioritize far eastern Europe?  More Americans, particularly those most disadvantaged are asking these questions.

How long do you think Ukraine would continue fighting without U.S. support?

Civil War

A popular refrain has been the discussion of a US based civil war. It’s in the public’s consciousness so much there was a movie released this year with this name.  Despite an exacerbation of our nation’s political differences, the likelihood of a civil war, defined as a war for control of government, is quite low.

U.S. government state capacity, a political science term, is overwhelming.  We have a very strong central government core.  When state capacity is weak, suggesting less control over its citizenry, civil war risk increases.  Strong state capacity implies more control over citizenry and a potential monopoly of violence and thus, a low probability of civil war.

Also, cleavages within institutions like military and law enforcement are not evident.  It would be impossible to engage in civil war absent large scale military defections.

Now this does not dismiss the possibility of large-scale unrest. This unrest, however, will not manifest in a takeover of government.  The media bandied the term, “insurrection” quite carelessly to describe the events of 1/6/2021.  Repeated use of the term insurrection likely had other motives.  Potential unrest interfering with government or military operation, would be met with force, again, absent widespread military or law enforcement defections.

My political thriller series pits the forces of liberty versus government authority.  There are players who agitate the government with kinetic and mostly cyber warfare.  No one confronts the US government directly, but rather at the fringes.  While this is a fictional depiction, I penned the series as a cautionary tale of what might evolve.

U.S. Government Debt

From Q1 2023 to Q1 2024 our federal debt grew by slightly more than $3 trillion.  This tracks with my predictions made in this essay penned in 2018.  This increase parallels the increase from Q1 2020 to Q2 2020 when government spending rose dramatically to combat an airborne virus.  In 2020 and 2021 we experienced “helicopter” money or direct payments to consumers.  What accounts for a similar debt increase in the last year?  Even though total spending decreased from 2020, our debt is feeling the impact of greater interest costs.

How should federal debt compare to the overall economy?  There was scholarly research on this topic suggesting that once debt grew to more than 90 percent of the overall economy, additional debt was counterproductive.  The U.S. crossed the 90% threshold in 2010.  Debt as a percentage of GDP sits at 123%.

The government is unlikely to curtail spending and the debt will continue to grow regardless of who gets elected president or which party controls Congress. About 50% of the budget is allocated to Social Security, Medicare, and Interest.  Much of the budget’s remainder is similarly inflexible.

When interest rates were lower, I proposed an academic exercise in Escaping Oz: Navigating the Crisis where I determined a FICO score for the US government.  This is the creditworthiness score assigned to consumers.  I concluded the U.S. government was a sub-prime borrower (and this was nine years ago).  While my exercise was hypothetical, there is a concrete measure of how the market views US creditworthiness through something called a Credit Default Swap (CDS).  Consider the CDS a form of debt insurance.  There are 13 nations whose debt insurance cost is less than the United States including Japan, which has a significantly higher debt to GDP ratio.  US debt insurance cost is roughly on par with Portugal.  Let that sink in.

I’ve argued for many years that there is no friction preventing higher spending on government’s part.  There is no incentive to balance the budget or cut spending.  Why?  There are plenty of buyers for US debt.  This is why Congress – both parties – can appropriate funds for a war in eastern Europe.  This is also why there are so many lobbyists in D.C.  It is also the reason for voter frustration (both parties) about how we should spend more to take care of domestic matters.

What friction might emerge to give Congress pause about spending?  The next section could shed light on this mystery.

U.S. Dollar

The US Dollar (USD) has enjoyed a preeminent position on the world’s financial stage since the end of World War II.  I discuss why in the aforementioned Escaping Oz book.  The dollar’s preeminence is fading.  While it’s true that US government spending profligacy is making the nation a worse credit risk, that’s not the main reason for the dollar’s diminished status on the world’s stage.

It’s incumbent on nations to accept USD for purposes of international trade.  Those USD then find a home in interest bearing USD denominated government securities.  The US government securities market is highly liquid and universally accepted.  While these debt are officially the owned property of whoever purchases them, the US government has ultimate control over them through electronic ledgers.

In recent years, US government policy has used the USD as an anvil in relations with foreign nations.  This led to the freezing of foreign-owned assets and in the Ukraine conflict, the seizure of Russian-owned US debt.  There’s even been discussion about selling these seized assets and using the proceeds to continue funding the Ukraine war.  Whatever your view of the Russia-Ukraine war, once the government seizes foreign assets, the entire democratic notion of property rights is extinguished.  Naturally, foreign governments, both friend and foe, respond by making themselves less vulnerable to that US foreign policy anvil.

The first step is via the creation of trading blocs where nations no longer use the USD as an intermediary.  This step is challenging since it requires a suitable replacement.  Since no other currency can readily occupy this role, the bloc must create something new that all members accept.  The first iteration of such a bloc will be by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa) nations and their new currency will no doubt feature commodity-based pegs (gold, silver, crude oil).  If successful, the BRICS or BRICS+ trading bloc will no longer require the USD for trading among member nations.  This will be no small hurdle.

But that’s just one part of the equation to replace the USD.  To fully replace the USD, the world would need to develop a new foreign reserve currency.  A reserve currency must have an open, liquid market.  Contemporary reserve currency examples include the USD, Japanese Yen, Euro among others.  The developing BRICS currency is for trading, not for the purposes of holding foreign reserves.

While talk of the USD’s demise is premature, the world has taken its first step towards the disintermediation of the greenback.  The longer-term consequences for the US consumer and the financing of federal debt will be profound.

Malice and Incompetence

“Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence”, goes the old saying.  Here are a few examples where you can be the judge.  Judge these examples not through a political lens, but rather by what the institution or system is supposed to do.

• Despite numerous, ominous signs of security breaches, including obvious ones identified by attendees, during the 45th POTUS campaign rally in Butler, PA, he was allowed to proceed onstage.

• We’re engaged in a proxy war against the world’s largest nuclear-armed power defending a historically corrupt nation, in a conflict they cannot possibly “win” (we’ve not been told what success looks like). We refuse to engage in peace negotiations.

• A profound lack of immigration control stresses public and social infrastructure and facilitates the supply of deadly fentanyl into our streets. [Note: if your business is selling drugs, why would you kill your clientele?]

• We were constantly reminded the 46th POTUS was mentally sharp. The Democrats accelerated the debate schedule and were utterly surprised when POTUS had a regrettable performance.

Were these instances of malice or incompetence?  If your choice is malice, what’s the desired outcome?

The Elite

There’s some overlap here with the Deep State (DS). The Elites are often highly educated and occupy positions of power either in government, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO), or business.  Referring to the novel 2020 once again, there is a group who craves societal order, but they can only achieve this order through control.  Control means authority.  While some measures of control originate with laws, other measures come from rules and regulations or edicts from elected or unelected officials.

As I noted in Escaping Oz: An Observer’s Reflections, there is almost an inverse relationship in the distance between the individual and the “governing” body and the absolute level of control exerted.  Proximity of the governing body to the individual allows for more accountability.  Examples include local school boards (high proximity) versus World Health Organization (low proximity).

Those seeking control must create sufficient chaos, real or imagined, so that a majority of the population craves the safety promised by the Elite.  Another component of chaos creation is the highlighting of differences among us by other than purely economic measures.  The US has a broad middle class so it’s easier to divide across race, religion, or sexuality than highlighting economic differences within that class.  There’s also division by creating issues with imprecise grievances.

Then there’s the demonization of those threatening the established order.  The 45th POTUS has been squarely in the crosshairs of the Elite since 2015.  He’s been demonized to such an extent that mere mention of his name evokes a visceral reaction.  Yet the reaction is based on personality traits more than policy.  The Elites counterpunch by demonizing his supporters.  Yet, this group of supporters is large and no longer at the societal fringe.

Control the flow and availability of information, and you have submissive masses clamoring for the promise of safety and security.  The Elites are also capable of overplaying the chaos and thus emerges the equal and opposite reaction —a swath of the population unwilling to cede their freedom to Elite control.  This is where we are today — the opposite force is countering the Elites.  This is not just a U.S. phenomenon either.

Truth

Several months ago, I challenged a group of college students to identify where they found truth.  Unfortunately, truth is an elusive achievement these days.  Paradoxically, we’ve never had more data (words and numbers), although we struggle to arrange this data into meaningful, coherent information.  It used to be we could turn on the evening news and at least feel some sense that we received truth.  No longer.  Decades ago, news organizations were not profit centers but rather, news sources.  Once turned into profit centers, news organizations, of necessity, morphed into a blend of news and entertainment.  Naturally, partisanship followed.

The associated reaction is a boutique industry of independent journalists, some of whom are behind paywalls and others that are not.  We celebrate these indie journalists for their investigatory and impartial approach, though that’s what we should expect. Without strong, independent-minded journalism, there is no check on government power abuse, or that of the Elites.

There’s also what I’ll term “open-source” journalists, regular everyday folks, who capture images and video and post on social media platforms.  I’ll learn more, faster from open-source journalists sometimes compared to regular media.  I remember waking up the morning of October 7, 2023 and watching the attack on Israel unfold as I perused my feed on Twitter/X, learning more, sooner from these open-source feeds than when I turned on the television.

Our greatest challenge as a society is finding a trustworthy news source(s).  In Escaping Oz: An Observer’s Reflections, I lamented the lack of critical thinking skills and how important it was to ask the right questions. If you rely on mainstream media to ask the right questions, you’re unlikely to have the entire picture.   Selfishly, it’s important for people to read, to dedicate time to finding sources of truth, so that we can free our minds of the ever-present clutter.

The Future

It’s important to understand that time is cyclical, not linear.  Trends need not stay in effect forever.  We can be the change.  You must prepare to meet the future.  It always arrives sooner than expected.  Are you ready?

Freedom OF vs. Freedom FROM…know the difference?